Mon Jul 31 16:04:42 EDT 2017

Items of Interest

Various web links I found to be of interest recently.

  • Economics: The new astrology

    By fetishising mathematical models, economists turned economics into a highly paid pseudoscience

    Every economist I interviewed agreed that conflicts of interest were highly problematic for the scientific integrity of their field - but only tenured ones were willing to go on the record. 'In economics and finance, if I'm trying to decide whether I'm going to write something favourable or unfavourable to bankers, well, if it's favourable that might get me a dinner in Manhattan with movers and shakers,' Pfleiderer said to me. "I've written articles that wouldn't curry favour with bankers but I did that when I had tenure."
    ...
    Economists who rationalise their discipline's value can be convincing, especially with prestige and mathiness on their side. But there's no reason to keep believing them. The pejorative verb 'rationalise' itself warns of mathiness, reminding us that we often deceive each other by making prior convictions, biases and ideological positions look 'rational', a word that confuses truth with mathematical reasoning. To be rational is, simply, to think in ratios, like the ratios that govern the geometry of the stars. Yet when mathematical theory is the ultimate arbiter of truth, it becomes difficult to see the difference between science and pseudoscience. The result is people like the judge in Evangeline Adams's trial, or the Son of Heaven in ancient China, who trust the mathematical exactitude of theories without considering their performance - that is, who confuse math with science, rationality with reality.

  • No, Seattle's $15 Minimum Wage Is Not Hurting Workers

    Contrary to what one unrepresentative study found, the city's workers are actually benefiting from the wage hike.

    There are, of course, naysayers. A recent University of Washington study argued that Seattle's wage hike would actually hurt workers overall because an hourly increase would be offset by a reduction of workers' hours and decreased employment. But IRLE researchers and others challenged that study as excessively limited in scope, based on an unrepresentative sample of workers. The Berkeley researchers contend that their analysis focuses on material impacts in a more representative sector.

    Probably an example of how one's politics can influence your conclusions.

  • The weird power of the placebo effect, explained

    Belief is the oldest medicine known to man.

      The family of placebo effects ranges from the common sense to some head scratchers.

    1. Regression to the mean
      When people first go to a doctor or start on a clinical trial, their symptoms might be particularly bad (why else would they have sought treatment?). But in the natural course of an illness, symptoms may get better all on their own. In depression clinical studies, for instance, researchers find around one-third of patients get better without drugs or placebo.
    2. Confirmation bias
      A patient may hope to get better when they're in treatment, so they will change their focus. They'll pay closer attention to signs that they're getting better and ignore signs that they're getting worse.
    3. Expectations and learning
      ... So awareness that you're being given something that's supposed to relieve pain seems to impact perception of it working.
      ... The research also suggests that fake surgeries - where doctors make some incisions but don't actually change anything - are an even stronger placebo than pills.
      ... The research also suggests that fake surgeries - where doctors make some incisions but don't actually change anything - are an even stronger placebo than pills.
      ... There is such thing as the nocebo effect: where negative expectations make people feel worse.
    4. Pharmacological conditioning
      For instance, Colloca has found that individual neurons in the brains of patients with Parkinson's disease will still respond to placebos as though they are actual anti-Parkinson's drugs after such conditioning has taken place.
    5. Social learning
      When study participants see another patient get relief from a placebo treatment they have a greater placebo response.
    6. A human connection
      ... The warm, friendly acupuncturist was able to produce better relief of symptoms.
      ... This may be the least-understood component of placebo: It's not just about pills. It's about the environment a pill is taken in. It's about the person who gave it to you - and the rituals and encounters associated with them.
    Also see Surgery Is One Hell Of A Placebo about sham surgery.
  • The Myth of Drug Expiration Dates

    Hospitals and pharmacies are required to toss expired drugs, no matter how expensive or vital. Meanwhile the FDA has long known that many remain safe and potent for years longer.

    The idea that drugs expire on specified dates goes back at least a half-century, when the FDA began requiring manufacturers to add this information to the label. The time limits allow the agency to ensure medications work safely and effectively for patients. To determine a new drug's shelf life, its maker zaps it with intense heat and soaks it with moisture to see how it degrades under stress. It also checks how it breaks down over time. The drug company then proposes an expiration date to the FDA, which reviews the data to ensure it supports the date and approves it. Despite the difference in drugs' makeup, most "expire" after two or three years.
    ...
    Pharmacists and researchers say there is no economic "win" for drug companies to investigate further. They ring up more sales when medications are tossed as "expired" by hospitals, retail pharmacies and consumers despite retaining their safety and effectiveness.
    ...
    A 2006 study of 122 drugs tested by the program showed that two-thirds of the expired medications were stable every time a lot was tested. Each of them had their expiration dates extended, on average, by more than four years, according to research published in the Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences.

  • High US health care spending is quite well explained by its high material standard of living

    When properly analyzed with better data and closer attention to detail, it becomes quite clear that US healthcare spending is not astronomically high for a country of its wealth.

  • Fareed Zakaria made a scary prediction about democracy in 1997 - and it's coming true

    Democracy is rising, but not the good kind.

    Zakaria's piece made an important distinction between democracy and liberalism, constructs that are often conflated. Democracy is a process for choosing leaders; it's about popular participation. To say that a state is democratic is to say little about how it is actually governed.

  • The more things change

    What kinds of sex one has varies enormously over time, as does with what kinds of and how many people. We can see this over big periods of history and within living memory in our own culture.


Posted by mjm | Permanent link | Comments
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