Various web links I found to be of interest recently.
The Fermi Paradox remains a stumbling block when it comes to the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence (SETI). Named in honor of the famed physicist Enrico Fermi who first proposed it, this paradox addresses the apparent disparity between the expected probability that intelligent life is plentiful in the Universe, and the apparent lack of evidence of extra-terrestrial intelligence (ETI).
In the decades since Enrico Fermi first posed the question that encapsulates this paradox ("Where is everybody?"), scientists have attempted to explain this disparity one way or another. But in a new study conducted by three famed scholars from the Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) at Oxford University, the paradox is reevaluated in such a way that it makes it seem likely that humanity is alone in the observable Universe.
Addendum: Also explained at Why haven’t we found aliens yet?
The rise and fall of IQ levels.
Population intelligence quotients increased throughout the 20th century-a phenomenon known as the Flynn effect-although recent years have seen a slowdown or reversal of this trend in several countries. To distinguish between the large set of proposed explanations, we categorize hypothesized causal factors by whether they accommodate the existence of within-family Flynn effects. Using administrative register data and cognitive ability scores from military conscription data covering three decades of Norwegian birth cohorts (1962-1991), we show that the observed Flynn effect, its turning point, and subsequent decline can all be fully recovered from within-family variation. The analysis controls for all factors shared by siblings and finds no evidence for prominent causal hypotheses of the decline implicating genes and environmental factors that vary between, but not within, families.
Nutrition science is supposed to tell us how to eat. It's in the midst of a crisis.
Last week, the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine pulled the original paper from the record, issuing a rare retraction. It also republished a new version of PREDIMED, based on a reanalysis of the data that accounted for the missteps.
Also see, Errors Trigger Retraction Of Study On Mediterranean Diet's Heart Benefits
The authors of the NEJM paper are replacing the 2013 paper with a corrected version that shows people following the diet had a similarly reduced level of heart attacks and strokes. The major change is softer language about the conclusions.
Gary Marcus, New York University
Although deep learning has historical roots going back decades, neither the term "deep learning" nor the approach was popular just over five years ago, when the field was reignited by papers such as Krizhevsky, Sutskever and Hinton's now classic 2012 (Krizhevsky, Sutskever, & Hinton, 2012) deep net model of Imagenet.
What has the field discovered in the five subsequent years? Against a background of considerable progress in areas such as speech recognition, image recognition, and game playing, and considerable enthusiasm in the popular press, I present ten concerns for deep learning, and suggest that deep learning must be supplemented by other techniques if we are to reach artificial general intelligence.
Also see related. Artificial intelligence pioneer says we need to start over.
B. H. Liddell Hart (1895-1970)
History has limitations as guiding signpost, however, for although it can show us the right direction, it does not give detailed information about the road conditions.
But its negative value as a warning sign is more definite. History can show us what to avoid, even if it does not teach us what to do-by showing the most common mistakes that mankind is apt to make and to repeat.
The Lifespan of a Lie
The most famous psychology study of all time was a sham. Why can't we escape the Stanford Prison Experiment?
Affluence-not willpower-seems to be what's behind some kids' capacity to delay gratification.
The original results were based on studies that included fewer than 90 children-all enrolled in a preschool on Stanford's campus. In restaging the experiment, Watts and his colleagues thus adjusted the experimental design in important ways: The researchers used a sample that was much larger-more than 900 children-and also more representative of the general population in terms of race, ethnicity, and parents' education. The researchers also, when analyzing their test's results, controlled for certain factors-such as the income of a child's household-that might explain children's ability to delay gratification and their long-term success.
By Morgan Housel, The Collaborative Fund
From an industry that talks too much about what to do, and not enough about what happens in your head when you try to do it.
Jordan Peterson, the alt-right, and the reactionary allure of mythology.
To dismiss Jordan Peterson's appeal as just misogyny, or just "straight white male victimhood" (even as these elements play a major part in his popularity), is to fundamentally misunderstand the nature of his success. What Peterson understands, and is able to capitalize on, is that people need stories. He understands that the cultural potency of images and myths, and the human need for them, are two of the strongest forces in the world. It is impossible to understand the appeal of any traditionalist or nostalgic movement without recognizing that, for better or for worse, they fulfill a legitimate emotional, aesthetic, and spiritual need.