Various web links I found to be of interest recently.
Credentialed authorities are comically bad at predicting the future. But reliable forecasting is possible.
In the 30 years since Ehrlich sent Simon a check, the track record
of expert forecasters-in science, in economics, in politics-is
as dismal as ever. In business, esteemed (and lavishly compensated)
forecasters routinely are wildly wrong in their predictions of
everything from the next stock-market correction to the next housing
boom. Reliable insight into the future is possible, however. It just
requires a style of thinking that's uncommon among experts who
are certain that their deep knowledge has granted them a special
grasp of what is to come.
...
Hedgehogs are deeply and tightly focused. Some have spent their
career studying one problem. Like Ehrlich and Simon, they fashion
tidy theories of how the world works based on observations
through the single lens of their specialty. Foxes, meanwhile,
"draw from an eclectic array of traditions, and accept ambiguity and
contradiction," Tetlock wrote. Where hedgehogs represent narrowness,
foxes embody breadth.
A widely cited source for news stories and even studies about misinformation, despite the fact that its method is in no way scientific. More info about it on Wikipedia.
PolitiFact's take on Media Bias/Fact Check:
Until Dave Van Zandt adds objective markers to the MB/FC rating scales and justifies every rating with real objective data, take the ratings with a boulder of salt. They're worthless without specific backing data.
But then again also check out, PolitiFact Bias
Who is without bias? Who to believe?
The "Born to Win, Schooled to Lose" report from the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce lays out the inequities: Children with low test scores from high-income families have a 71 percent chance of being affluent adults by the age of 25, compared to only a 31 percent chance for poor children with high test scores.
A study of UBI trials concludes that making cash payments to all is no solution to poverty and inequality.
It could find no evidence to suggest that such a scheme could be sustained for all individuals in any country in the short, medium or longer term - or that this approach could achieve lasting improvements in wellbeing or equality. The research confirms the importance of generous, non-stigmatising income support, but everything turns on how much money is paid, under what conditions and with what consequences for the welfare system as a whole.
In this episode of the Making Sense podcast, Sam Harris speaks with Bret Weinstein about the moral panic at Evergreen State College, the concept of race, genetic differences between human populations, intersectionality, sex and gender, "metaphorical truth," religion and "group selection," equality, and other topics.
Go (programming language) makes it easier (than Java or Python) to write correct, clear and efficient code.