Tue Oct 12 11:16:02 EDT 2021

Covid-19

Some recent links related to Covid-19.

  • The tangled history of mRNA vaccines

    Hundreds of scientists had worked on mRNA vaccines for decades before the coronavirus pandemic brought a breakthrough.

  • Hundreds of AI tools have been built to catch covid. None of them helped.

    In June, the Turing Institute, the UK's national center for data science and AI, put out a report summing up discussions at a series of workshops it held in late 2020. The clear consensus was that AI tools had made little, if any, impact in the fight against covid.

  • New evidence undermines the COVID lab-leak theory - but the press keeps pushing it

    "That a laboratory leak would find its way to the very place where you would expect to find a zoonotic transmission is quite unlikely," Joel Wertheim, an associate professor at UC San Diego's medical school, told me. "To have it find its way to multiple markets, the exact place where you would expect to see the introduction, is unbelievably unlikely."
    ...
    Evidence that artificial manipulation of a virus gave rise to SARS-CoV-2 has faded, as scientists find more evidence that features of SARS-CoV-2 thought to be unnatural occur in nature. Meanwhile, evidence for zoonotic transmission is constantly accumulating. No one who reports on the issue without acknowledging these two trends should be trusted.

  • Experts: COVID-19 infection offers less protection than many think

    Your case of COVID-19 -- especially if it was very mild -- probably didn't create enough of an immune response to provide lasting protection against the coronavirus, said Dr. Buddy Creech, president-elect of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society.

    Even if you've had COVID-19, you need to get vaccinated to make sure yous don't catch a second case that might be worse than your first, experts said.

  • Virus fears linger for vaccinated older adults

    In a sign of the starkly different way Americans view the coronavirus pandemic, vaccinated older adults are far more worried about the virus than the unvaccinated and far likelier to take precautions despite the protection afforded by their shots, according to a new poll out Wednesday from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
    ...
    That worry is taking a toll: Those concerned about COVID-19 are less likely to rate their quality of life, mental and emotional health, and social activities and relationships as excellent or very good.

  • Is the Delta variant really more than twice as transmissible as the original strain of the virus?

    The goal of this essay is not to convince you that Delta isn't more transmissible than the previously established strains. To be clear, I think it probably is (SARS-CoV-2 is subject to natural selection and it's not particularly surprising that more transmissible variants should emerge over time), but I also think its transmissibility advantage has almost certainly been vastly overestimated. The view that Delta is more than twice as transmissible as the original strain is superficially plausible because it comes with a compelling narrative.
    ...
    The evidence that has been adduced for this specific claim is no more convincing. As we have seen, the estimates of Delta's transmissibility advantage that everybody uncritically cites could easily be misleading, and there are good reasons to think that Delta's transmissibility advantage is actually much lower.

  • The Myth of 'Long COVID'

    Disclaimer: This is from a far-right / conservative author/publication and I haven't verified the claims, so read with caution.

    The largest study so far of "long-haulers," published by researchers at University College London in July, comprised nearly 4,000 subjects from over 56 countries. Participants were over the age of 18 and suffered from symptoms lasting at least 28 days. The researchers acknowledged merely in passing that in the study a mere 27% or 1020 of these "COVID long-haulers" had evidence of exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. That's whether antigen or antibody. The only connection to COVID was the attestation of the sufferers. They "felt" they had COVID, regardless of evidence.

    An August study of 3,151 British ("long haulers") in Pragmatic and Observational Research found only 17.2% were test-confirmed positive. A further 12% said they were told they had acute COVID, but no test was performed. And over 70% admitted it was merely self-diagnosis. An influential and scary article in the Atlantic reported some two-thirds of "long-hauler" patients had negative coronavirus antibody tests without making the obvious inference. An advocacy group study released in May 2020 found that only "About a quarter of respondents (23.1%) tested positive for COVID-19" but in "our analysis, we included all responses regardless of testing status."

    For some contrary evidence see,
    At least one long-term symptom seen in 37% of COVID-19 patients -study.

  • No, Vaccinated People Are Not 'Just as Likely' to Spread the Coronavirus as Unvaccinated People

    So let me make one thing clear: Vaccinated people are not as likely to spread the coronavirus as the unvaccinated. Even in the United States, where more than half of the population is fully vaccinated, the unvaccinated are responsible for the overwhelming majority of transmission.
    ...
    In the aftermath of the Provincetown announcement, many who had gotten their shots were confused about what the news meant for them, especially when headlines seemed to imply that vaccinated individuals are as likely to contract and transmit COVID-19 as the unvaccinated. But this framing missed the single most important factor in spreading the coronavirus: To spread the coronavirus, you have to have the coronavirus. And vaccinated people are far less likely to have the coronavirus-period. If this was mentioned at all, it was treated as an afterthought.

  • Stanford students are more likely to wear masks on bicycles than helmets

    I think this anecdote is instructive in understanding the social dynamics that have emerged in the COVID-19 pandemic. Seemingly intelligent and well-rounded people (Stanford students, for example) have adopted bizarre, pointless habits to comport with new expectations about how to "stay safe" -- like wearing masks outdoors -- all while continuing in much more risky behaviors. This is not to say that riding a bicycle without a helmet is *especially* risky, or that I believe helmets should be mandated (they shouldn't). But it's absolutely a bigger risk than COVID-19 for a vaccinated twenty-something.


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