Lunch at the Labs

Items of Interest

Various web links I found to be of interest recently.

• globalinequality: The chronicle of the revolutions foretold?

  For almost two decades, Peter Turchin has been involved, with many colleagues and co-authors, in an epochal project: to figure out, using quantifiable evidence, what are the forces that lead to the rise, and more importantly, to the decline of nations, political turbulence and decay, and revolutions.

  The current elite, whom Turchin dissects in an almost forensic manner, is composed of CEOs and board directors, large investors, corporate lawyers, "policy-planning network", and top elected officials (p. 203), that is, of all those who have money and who use it to gain voice and power.
  ...
  But that elite is not monolithic. An aspiring elite ("credential precariat") has been constituted. It has failed so far to reach the top and has ideologically defined itself in opposition to immigration, globalization, "woke" ideology. Turchin argues that this aspiring or would-be elite is in the process of taking over the Republican party and thus creating a political tool for an effective intra-elite competition. This is, of course, resented by the ruling elite that enjoyed an extraordinary good run between 1980 and 2008 as its view of the world (neoliberal capitalism, "credentialism", and identity politics) became espoused by both mainstream parties. Turchin regards the present political struggle in the US as the ruling class trying (desperately) to fend off an assault on its ideology and, more importantly, on its economic position, by an aspiring elite that is enlisting the support of the disaffected middle class.

  Also see this Peter Turchin article from ten years ago: History tells us where the wealth gap leads.

      Return of the oppressed.
      From the Roman Empire to our own Gilded Age, inequality moves in cycles.
      The future looks like a rough ride
  

• Jeremy Grantham warned the 'everything bubble' is bursting

  Markets Insider, Apr 24, 2023.

  1. Jeremy Grantham warned the S&P 500 could tank by up to 50% as the "everything bubble" bursts.
  2. The GMO cofounder predicted a sweeping market decline and a harsh recession.
  3. Grantham advised against holding US stocks for now, and slammed the Fed for inflating asset bubbles.
• Bryan Caplan on AI

  Bryan Caplan was skeptical after AI struggled on his midterm exam. But within months, it had aced the test.

  What I consider a bizarre argument [more broadly] is that once the AI becomes intelligent enough to increase its own intelligence, then it will go into infinite intelligence in an instant and that will be it for us. [That view is endorsed by] very smart, very articulate people. They don't come off as crazy, but I just think that they are.

  They have sort of talked themselves into a corner. You start with this definition of: imagine there's an infinitely intelligent AI. How can we stop it from doing whatever it wanted? Well, once you just put it that way, we couldn't. But why should you think that this thing will exist? Nothing else has ever been infinite. Why would there be any infinite thing ever?

• Computational Model Uncovers New Insights Into How Our Brains Store Information

  Scientists' understanding of how memories are stored is undergoing a seismic shift. Until recently, researchers thought that memories were tied to specific neurons and the synapses that connect them. But surprising experimental observations in the past decade have pointed to a new idea called representational drift, which posits that the neurons responsible for certain learned behaviors are not set in stone but continually changing - a radical departure from the established paradigm.

• False Memories Can Form Within Seconds, Study Finds

  In a new study, scientists found that it's possible for people to form false memories of an event within seconds of it occurring. This almost-immediate misremembering seems to be shaped by our expectations of what should happen, the team says.

• We Are Not One

  C-SPAN interview with Brooklyn College Professor Eric Alterman about his book
  "We Are Not One: A History of America's Fight Over Israel"
  

• No, moderate drinking isn't good for your health

  Drinking moderate amounts of alcohol every day does not - as once thought - protect against death from heart disease, nor does it contribute to a longer life, according to a sweeping new analysis of alcohol research.
  ...
  The belief that daily alcohol consumption is good for you dates to the 1980s, when researchers identified the "French paradox" - the suggestion that low rates of cardiovascular disease among men in France was associated with daily wine consumption. Although later analyses found flaws in the research, the belief that moderate drinking improved health became widely accepted. Much of the research into the health effects of alcohol has been funded by the alcohol industry. One recent report found that 13,500 studies have been directly or indirectly paid for by the industry.