Stock market prognosticators
The way to make a name for yourself as a stock market prognosticator
is to make many predictions and then tout the ones you got right
and forget the ones you got wrong. Here's just one example.
Barry Ritholtz gave this rosy scenario in his
The Big Picture
blog on
April 29, 2010:
"Despite the recent turmoil, we have not found confirmation that
the bull run is over - yet."
And then 6 days later wrote on
May 5 2010
"In other words, the conditions for a major reversal are not conclusive.
That doesn't mean it cannot happen, it just means that at this moment,
making decisions with imperfect information, we put the odds of a hefty
drop of 20+% at about 25%."
and then again later on
the same day
"We are now all cash. We have no positions long or short."
with the later clarification on
May 6 2010
"To clarify the 100% cash position,
that is in the long short aggressive accounts."
Now today
May 25 2010 when promoting his
NYC Investor & Client Meeting
he writes that he will discuss:
"Why we went to Cash on May 5th, 2010 in our Long/Short Accounts"
I wonder why he didn't say he will discuss his other statement earlier the
same day
"In other words, the conditions for a major reversal are not conclusive."
I like Barry Ritholtz and learn a lot by reading his blog.
But like all market prognosticators he makes many predictions
and then takes credit for the ones he got right and conveniently
forgets the ones he got wrong.