Lunch at the Labs

The way to make a name for yourself as a stock market prognosticator is to make many predictions and then tout the ones you got right and forget the ones you got wrong. Here's just one example.

Barry Ritholtz gave this rosy scenario in his The Big Picture blog on April 29, 2010:

"Despite the recent turmoil, we have not found confirmation that the bull run is over - yet."

And then 6 days later wrote on May 5 2010

"In other words, the conditions for a major reversal are not conclusive. That doesn't mean it cannot happen, it just means that at this moment, making decisions with imperfect information, we put the odds of a hefty drop of 20+% at about 25%."

and then again later on the same day

"We are now all cash. We have no positions long or short."

with the later clarification on May 6 2010

"To clarify the 100% cash position, that is in the long short aggressive accounts."

Now today May 25 2010 when promoting his NYC Investor & Client Meeting he writes that he will discuss:

"Why we went to Cash on May 5th, 2010 in our Long/Short Accounts"

I wonder why he didn't say he will discuss his other statement earlier the same day

"In other words, the conditions for a major reversal are not conclusive."

I like Barry Ritholtz and learn a lot by reading his blog. But like all market prognosticators he makes many predictions and then takes credit for the ones he got right and conveniently forgets the ones he got wrong.