Lunch at the Labs

Artificial Intelligence

Several well known smart people have been voicing fears about artificial intelligence being a threat to to humanity. For example,

• Stephen Hawking warns artificial intelligence could end mankind   (2 December 2014)
• Elon Musk Donates $10M to Keep AI From Turning Evil   (01/15/2015)
• Bill Gates is worried about artificial intelligence too   (January 28, 2015)

But I fail to see any mention of a timeline. Is it decades, centuries or millennia? Predictions without a date attached to them are meaningless since they can never be proven wrong. I disagree with the above, so it's nice to see there are plenty of others who do also.

• No, the robots are not going to rise up and kill you

  David W. Buchanan, member of IBM Watson "Jeopardy!" system team

  Science fiction is partly responsible for these fears. A common trope works as follows: Step 1: Humans create AI to perform some unpleasant or difficult task. Step 2: The AI becomes conscious. Step 3: The AI decides to kill us all. As science fiction, such stories can be great fun. As science fact, the narrative is suspect, especially around Step 2, which assumes that by synthesizing intelligence, we will somehow automatically, or accidentally, create consciousness. I call this the consciousness fallacy. It seems plausible at first, but the evidence doesn't support it. And if it is false, it means we should look at AI very differently.
  

• An Open Letter To Everyone Tricked Into Fearing Artificial Intelligence

  Erik Sofge: Don't believe the hype about artificial intelligence, or the horror

  Forget about the risk that machines pose to us in the decades ahead. The more pertinent question, in 2015, is whether anyone is going to protect mankind from its willfully ignorant journalists.
  ...
  Here's the letter at its most ominous, which is to say, not ominous at all:
  
      "Because of the great potential of AI, it is important to research
      how to reap its benefits while avoiding potential pitfalls."
  ...
  To use the CNET and BBC stories as examples, neither includes quotes or clarifications from the researchers who helped put together either the letter or its companion research document
  ...
  The truth is, there are researchers within the AI community who are extremely concerned about the question of artificial superintelligence, which is why FLI included a section in the letter's companion document about those fears. But it's also true that these researchers are in the extreme minority.

• Scientists say AI fears unfounded, could hinder tech advances

  Recent alarms over artificial intelligence research raise eyebrows at AI conference

  "We're in control of what we program," Bresina said, noting it was his own opinion and not an official NASA statement. "I'm not worried about the danger of AI... I don't think we're that close at all. We can't program something that learns like a child learns even -- yet. The advances we have are more engineering things. Engineering tools aren't dangerous. We're solving engineering problems."
  

• No need to panic -- artificial intelligence has yet to create a doomsday machine

  A malevolent AI will have to outwit not only raw human brainpower but the combination of humans and whatever loyal AI-tech we are able to command -- a combination that will best either on their own.
  

• Out of control AI will not kill us, believes Microsoft Research chief

  Eric Horvitz's position contrasts with that of several other leading thinkers.

  A Microsoft Research chief has said he thinks artificial intelligence systems could achieve consciousness, but has played down the threat to human life.