Lunch at the Labs

Various web links I found to be of interest recently.

• The Bayesian Brain: An Introduction to Predictive Processing

  Dominic Reichl: "The more I learn about the Bayesian brain, the more it seems to me that the theory of predictive processing is about as important for neuroscience as the theory of evolution is for biology, and that Bayes' law is about as important for cognitive science as the Schrödinger equation is for physics."

  Your brain runs an internal model of the causal order of world that continually creates predictions about what you expect to perceive. These predictions are then matched with what you actually perceive, and the divergence between predicted sensory data and actual sensory data yields a prediction error. The better a prediction, the better the fit, and the less prediction error propagates up the hierarchy.
  ...
  Predictive processing provides a framework for understanding all areas of neuroscience and cognitive science at a computational level. Although the Bayesian brain theory is still in its fledgling stage, confirmatory evidence is flowing in on a weekly basis from a vast range of different fields. And although it offers a highly integrative and ambitious account of the brain and human cognition, it does leave much unspecified. For specification, we must also engage with the paradigms of evolution (as cognition has an evolutionary history), embodied embeddedness (as cognition is embedded in physical environments), and sociocultural situatedness (as cognition is situated in social and cultural contexts). Only if we cover and combine all levels of analysis can we truly understand how humans work.

• The ACLU Has Lost Its Way

  The heart of Depp's claim is that Heard ruined his acting career when she published a 2018 op-ed in The Washington Post describing herself as "a public figure representing domestic abuse"-a thinly veiled reference to much-publicized accusations of assault she made against Depp in court filings toward the end of their short-lived marriage. But Heard hadn't pitched the idea to the Post-the ACLU had. Terence Dougherty, the organization's general counsel, testified via video deposition that after Heard promised to donate $3.5 million to the organization, the ACLU named her an "ambassador on women's rights with a focus on gender-based violence." The ACLU had also spearheaded the effort to place the op-ed, and served as Heard's ghostwriter. When Heard failed to pay up, Dougherty said, the ACLU collected $100,000 from Depp himself, and another $500,000 from a fund connected to Elon Musk, whom Heard dated after the divorce.
  ...
  The ACLU's bestowal of an ambassadorship and scribe-for-hire services upon a scandal-plagued actor willing to pay seven figures to transform herself into a victims' advocate and advance her acting career-Heard pushed for a publication date that coincided with the release of her film Aquaman-is part of the group's continuing decline. Once a bastion of free speech and high-minded ideals, the ACLU has become in many respects a caricature of its former self.

• Supreme Court's Roe ruling would trample the religious freedom of every Jewish American

  For Jews, it is no exaggeration to say that access to abortion services isn't just tolerated, it is a religious requirement, and has been for thousands of years.
  ...
  In Exodus chapter 21:22 of the Torah, we see a clear statement that a fetus is not a person: "When men fight, and one of them pushes a pregnant woman and a miscarriage results, but no other damage ensues, the one responsible shall be fined." This stands in sharp contrast with the next verse, which makes clear that if the pregnant person themselves is injured, then the punishment is "a life for a life, an eye for an eye."

• Kidnap Plot Trial Shows FBI At Its Most Corrupt

  The story sounded like the plot of a bad Hollywood movie: a group of men concocted a scheme to kidnap MI Gov. Gretchen Whitmer because of her Covid lockdowns. But on Friday, a jury in Grand Rapids found two men not guilty in the kidnap case, while deadlocked on charges against two ringleaders. The judge also declared a mistrial.
  ...
  Certainly the defendants were no choir boys. But at the same time, the real villains in the kidnap case were the FBI, who developed strategies to entrap the defendants.

• Seven Varieties of Stupidity

  (and what to do about them)

  When the psychologist Philip Tetlock was a graduate student he witnessed an experiment, designed by his mentor Bob Rescorla, which pitted a group of Yale undergrads against a rat. The students were shown a T-maze, like the one below. Food would appear at either A or B. The students' job was to predict where the food would appear next. The rat was set the same task.

  Rescorla applied a simple rule: food appeared on the left 60% of the time and on the right, 40%, at random. The students, assuming that some complex algorithm must be at work, looked for patterns and found them. They ended up getting it right 52% of the time - not much better than chance and considerably worse than the rat, which quickly figured out that one side yielded better results than the other and so headed to the left every time, achieving a 60% success rate.

• Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) Tools & Resources

  From Wikipedia: Open-source intelligence (OSINT) is the collection and analysis of data gathered from open sources (overt and publicly available sources) to produce actionable intelligence. OSINT is primarily used in national security, law enforcement, and business intelligence functions and is of value to analysts who use non-sensitive intelligence in answering classified, unclassified, or proprietary intelligence requirements across the previous intelligence disciplines.

  For how it is used see the bell¿ngcat investigative journalism group.

• Life Advice from NYC Chess Hustlers
• Poisoned legacy: why the future of power can't be nuclear

  Billions that would otherwise go to new nuclear infrastructure, with all the attendant costs of cleanup that continue for decades and beyond, should be pumped instead into clean energy.

• 'Mind-blowing': Ai-Da becomes first robot to paint like an artist

  AI algorithms prompt robot to interrogate, select, and decision-make to create a painting.

  Camera eyes fixed on her subject, AI algorithms prompt Ai-Da to interrogate, select, decision-make and, ultimately, create a painting. It's painstaking work, taking more than five hours a painting, but with no two works exactly the same.

Some recent health related items.

• 'Good' cholesterol may protect brain from Alzheimer's disease

  Higher levels of "good" cholesterol in the fluid surrounding your brain and spinal cord may help protect you from Alzheimer's disease, a new study suggests.
  ...
  The study linked a higher number of small HDL particles in cerebrospinal fluid with two key indicators that they might protect against Alzheimer's.

• 7,000 steps can save your life

  Stunning stat: Mortality risk was reduced by 50% for older adults who increased their daily steps from around 3,000 to around 7,000, according to new medical research.
  ...
  Between the lines: "It's not an all or nothing situation," says Paluch. Even just boosting daily step count to 5,000 - for 60 and older - and 7,000 - for younger folks - slashed mortality risk by 40%.

• COVID Kills Three to Six Times More Republicans According to NPR Study

  COVID-related American death data shows dramatic differences between Republican and Democratic counties, with the reddest tenth of the nation in October chalking up a death rate six times higher than that of the bluest tenth.
  ...
  Of 800,000 American COVID deaths, at least 179,400 more Republicans than Democrats have died. Was it FOX, Trump, or something else?

• Why the WHO took two years to say COVID is airborne

  The organization says that initial guidance covered airborne precautions in health-care settings, but notes that: "As the evidence on the transmission of COVID-19 has expanded, we have learnt that smaller-sized infectious particles known as aerosols also play a role in transmission in community settings, and WHO has adapted its guidance and messages to reflect this in the December 2020 update to our mask guidance."
  ...
  Part of the problem was how emphatic the WHO was at the beginning of the pandemic, says Heidi Tworek, a historian and public-policy specialist at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver. "To say that COVID was definitively not airborne unfortunately meant there was a massive hill to climb to undo that," she says. Right from the beginning, the WHO and other public-health authorities and governments should have emphasized that SARS-CoV-2 was a new coronavirus, and that guidelines would inevitably change, she says. "And when they do, it's a good thing because it means we know more."

• Employee's Panic Attacks From Surprise Birthday Party Prompt $450K Award